A STORM LOOKING LIKELY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
Over the new week the weather is to stay rather unsettled with heavy rain at time and the risk of a strong wind storm at the end of the new week.
On Sunday night and Monday heavy rain will effect the northwest of Ireland as a slow moving band stall over the northwest with spot flooding possible in the county’s of Donegal, Sligo and Mayo. Rainfall amounts of 25mm to 50mm could fall in some parts of the northwest between 6pm Sunday 7th October to 6pm Monday 8th of October. Amounts of 50+ could fall over the high ground and mountains over the next 24hrs leading to flooding at lower levels as streams and rivers rise in the northwest.
On Monday night and Tuesday another weather warning will be issued for the northwest of Ireland as further heavy rain will fall over the region again with rainfall amounts of up to 50mm again looking likely these amounts higher over the high ground and mountains which will lead to spot flooding in places. Over the next 48hrs just over 100mm of rain could fall over parts of Donegal, Mayo and Sligo this over higher ground. Warnings for rainfall may also be issued for west Galway on Monday night into Tuesday also.
Munster, Leinster and mid/east Ulster will remain mostly dry on Monday and Tuesday with mostly cloudy conditions but some brighter spells across the southeast.
Wednesday will be mostly dry across Ireland apart from a few light showers across parts of Munster and western parts of Connacht over the late afternoon and evening.
Continues below
On Wednesday night into Thursday morning rain looks likely to spread in from the southwest and move northeastwards across Ireland but it will brightening up again over the day with further showers these more frequent across the west and northwest of Ireland over the afternoon.
Temperatures over the new week will be milder than the week gone by with day time temperatures of between 14C to 21C.
STORM POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
Current indications on a number of models show heavy rainfall moving in from the southwest on Thursday night into Friday with further heavy rainfall next Saturday which would lead to flooding across parts of Ireland. On Thursday night into Friday morning models currently show a strong wind storm passing up along western and northwestern coastal areas with strong and damaging winds possible as it does so, this will not be able to be determined until closer to the time and the exact path is known but the area of low pressure at this stage has a central pressure of 950hPa to 960hPa.
Below I have attached the latest model runs from the GFS model and ECMWF model showing the risk of strong winds and gusts. Going by this at the moment where looking at gusts of up to 130km/hr across some western and northwestern Atlantic coastal county’s
LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWN A STORM LATE NEXT WEEK
LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN SHOWN A STORM LATE NEXT WEEK
The storm system shown at the end of next week Thursday night into Friday is a deep area of low pressure (Atlantic depression) and is not anything associated from a ex hurricane.
Below I have have attached the GFS model run of the storm tracking up the west and northwest coast of Ireland at the end of next week.
Attached below you will see the Atlantic depression tracking up the west and northwest coast later next week. One thing I would like to point out below on this model is TROPICAL STORM LESLIE which is forecast to move towards the western coast of Africa over next weekend and could possible bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Canary islands (Tenerife ,Lanzarote, Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura. I will also keep eyes on this over the week for anyone who will be heading to the islands on holidays.