WHITE CHRISTMAS CHANCES - Early signs are for colder conditions possibly developing for Christmas
Some models indicating colder conditions for the Christmas period
With just 2 weeks before the Christmas period the big question now that is being asked will it be a white Christmas.
In terms of forecasting we are now getting inside the time frame were we will start to see some early signs what may be ahead for Christmas 2023.
Below I will discuss some of the early signs on Weather models and the chances of a colder or milder Christmas period.
As we move through this coming week higher pressure looks set to build closer to Ireland bringing drier weather but not completely dry. Some showers and patches of drizzle will be possible in places but compared to the last week there will be less rainfall.
Saturday is currently looking like a mainly dry day across Ireland but there will be a change again come Sunday when rain is expected to move in from the Atlantic.
Early signs for next week are for a showery week with some bands of rain crossing the country at times, there is also a potential for for very windy conditions at times with a strong west to northwestertly wind possible at times.
The latest European and American weather model show a possible change as we head into next weekend from around the 22nd of December with a colder polar maritime airmass
A Polar Maritime air mass comes from the region northern Canada and Greenland. The wind direction normally associated Polar Maritime is a north-westerly wind.
In winter this air mass will lead to a mixture of rain, hail, thunder and even snow over some western and northern parts, Showers in this airflow are fairly frequent. Showers would be less across the eastern half of Ireland but can push further inland due to the strong winds.
Over recent years parts of the north, northwest and west received good snow accumulations in this sort of set up. This is not the coldest of set ups as the colder air is modified due to the longer distance it has to travel over warmer seas.
Looking ahead to next weekend and over the Christmas period both the Gfs and ECMWF weather models currently show colder conditions moving in from next weekend with very unstable airmass which would be likely to bring some wintry fall especially for Ulster and Connacht with overnight frosts also possible
Belows is and example of this evening Gfs 12Z model run which show some snow for Christmas day and later next weekend as that colder air moves down across Ireland. This is something over the last 2 days that some of the main weather models have been signalling towards.
The below image is from the Ecmwf model which only runs up as far as next Friday the 22nd it shows a cold front with rain moving across Ireland and behind it if your look towards Greenland and Canada a cold polar Maritime airmass following.
There are also a few signals for a potential storm for around this period between the 23rd to the 27th so that's something we may also need to keep a eye on closer to the time.
Nothing is set in stone yet but come this weekend I think we will have a very good idea how this all will play out.
I will have a further update come the weekend on the Christmas period outlook. For now you can keep a eye on our daily national 7 day outlook where updates will also be available.