A possible chance of the Northern lights over Ireland tonight as Geomagnetic storm continues
There has been a sudden uptick in solar weather over the last few days due to a increase of solar wind hitting earth and sparking of which for most has been the first big auroras displays of the the 2020/2021 season with earth last night seen G2 class solar storm conditions which hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Sept. 27th and early hours of this morning the 28th.
The solar wind speed is still rather fast between 550km/sec to 600km/sec which could see further G1 or even G2 storm conditions tonight which is been forecast by NOAA who says there still is a chance as our planet continues its transit through a high-speed stream of solar wind. The reason for uptick in solar activity and the northern lights is due to a large coronal hole.
Coronal holes are areas where the Sun's corona is colder, hence darker, and has lower-density plasma than average because there is lower energy and gas levels. Coronal holes are part of the Sun's corona and are constantly changing and reshaping because the corona is not uniform.
The open configuration of the magnetic field in coronal holes allows particles to escape, and it is found that these holes are sources of high speed solar wind streams. When the particles from these streams hit the Earth they may cause geomagnetic storms.
This image shows the sun with the large darker area which Donegal Weather Channel has marked with the arrows show the Current Coronal hole
From been a regular and experienced aurora hunter myself during the aurora season there are many things you need to factor and know when looking for the northern.
The moon depending what phase its at can wash out the aurora but during a major solar storm from G2 to to G5 the aurora still can been seen. The less bright the moon is the best.
Don’t expect the aurora to be just sitting there and this is where the term aurora hunter comes into play. There have been many nights been out when aurora hunting hoping for things to fall into places and I have caught noting so I try again the next night there is a chance.
Is the aurora visible to the naked eye? and to answer that yes. Weak auroras can be visible to a trained aurora hunters eye as a brighter patch in the northern sky.
Can the colour of the aurora be seen like in photos? Yes the night colours from the Aurora can be seen but only when there is a major outburst which I have seen many times. The reason photos look more vivid with colour to what we see with the naked eye is due to when your taken a long exposure photo its letting more light in to what we can see.
Another important factor is the BZ which is the Magnetic field strength. A larger southward Bz value allows for a more effective energy transfer from the Sun's magnetic field lines to the Earth's and this creates a more vibrant aurora. If the BZ is northwards that tells me that there is a very slim chance of the aurora here in Ireland.
The kp index is only a forecast aurora strength which runs from 1 to 9 and is not something I do not use when it comes to factoring in if the aurora will be visible. Some people says the aurora needs to be of a Kp number of 5 or 6 to be seen in Ireland but that is false as I have seen the aurora when the KP number has been on 1 here in Ireland. A Kp value just shows the strength of a solar storm with anything under KP 5 regarded as unsettled solar conditions.
G1 Storm Conditions = Kp5
G2 Storm Conditions = Kp6
G3 Storm Conditions = Kp7
G4 Storm Conditions = Kp8
G5 Storm Conditions = Kp9A good strong solar wind speed is also a help epically when its between 500 kilometers a second and 700 kilometers a second upwards the higher the better meaning the stronger the solar storm will be a the better chance of a major aurora displays.
I have seen close to 150 northern lights displays here in Ireland over the years from small auroras to big major aurora displays with my first ever sighting of the the aurora going all the way back to October 2003 nearly 17 years ago. The Halloween solar storms were a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections that occurred from mid-October to early November 2003, peaking around October 28–29. Since 2003 there has been no bigger solar storms than them This series of storms generated the largest solar flare ever recorded by the GOES system, modeled as strong as X45 (initially estimated at X28 due to saturation of GOES' detectors).
Below you will see the weather forecast outlook for tonight. Kenneth Mc Donagh from the Donegal Weather Channel
FORECAST OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT 28TH SEPTEMBER 2020
The good news is that clear spells are forecast for tonight nationwide but some patchy cloud to in places but still good viewing conditions for aurora hunting. It will be cool with temperatures between 2C to 7C coolest in the south.
The moon phase tonight will be Moon: 90% so it will wash a lot of the aurora out unless G2 storming conditions occur. Best chance to find or see the aurora will be with a camera which can shoot long exposures photo DSLRs are best.
You can get real time aurora alerts and if the aurora has been spotted from our new app which can be downloaded from the google play store by CLICKING HERE
* Only ANDROID users at moment.
* Features under development.