Another warm and dry spell or even a heatwave possible after mid August
IRELAND WEATHER NEWS
Some of the longer range forecast model are showing the possible chance of a warmer and drier spells of weather to return from around mid August or just after.
It something we lack in Ireland is warm weather and sunshine but more so due to been right beside the Atlantic Ocean.
But there are some positive signs from some of the longer range models with some trend or outliners shower to possible chances of something warmer to return.
Today we will look at the JMA long range forecast weather model which is the Japanese model.
The Below Chart is for the 3rd and 4th weeks of August.
The blues on the Chart are below average pressure or heights - Unsettled weather
The Yellow, Orange and Red is above average pressure or heights - Settled weather
Ireland and the UK can be located on this chart on the top right hand corner and as you can see that the latest JMA long range forecast is going for above average pressure which is good news if we are to see another settled spell before summer is out.
Pressure
The below chart shows the temperature forecast for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of August and again its good news if your like warm weather. The JMA is currently going for above average temperatures across Ireland which shows temperatures around 2C to 3C above normal. Most likely this would likely develop into heatwave conditions again at some point in the second half of August.
Compared to other forecasts from the JMA in the past this is a very strong signal even at this range around 3 week out
Temperatures
The ECMWF Extended 42 day forecast also is showing signs of higher pressure near Ireland and western Europe towards the end of the Month of August which would bring much more settled weather but signals are weak at this stage which you would expect but thats two models showing the chances of something drier
Towards the Second half of August the ECMWF model is also signaling something a little warmer with much of Ireland seen above average temperatures. This may be a outliner for something warmer to develop later in the month as the JMA model also shows
The latest GFS model from this evenings 12z Model run also shows something drier and warmer developing from the middle of August as we head into the 3rd week. It shows a Azores high moving northwards with the Jet stream been pushed northwards which would mean Ireland would sit under the warm side of the jet stream and with higher pressure building across Ireland this could also bring much warmer weather again.
The 1st and 2nd week of August is looking unsettled with some heavy showers of rain at times but at least we are seen some positive signs from the longer range models which also hinted at something warmer weeks in advance of last weeks heatwave.
Saying for sure that something warmer is on the horizon is not possible at this stage but its a start that we are getting good signals.