CHRISTMAS UPDATE PART 3

Forecast update by - Kenneth Mc Donagh

We move even closer to the Christmas period and now are approaching a timescale when the weather forecast starts to become a little more clearer for the the 2020 Christmas period and the trend on the forecasting models the past week have been for unsettled weather on the week coming up to Christmas but turning colder across Ireland and the UK just in time for Christmas.

Below we will look at the latest models trends and what the show today.

As mentioned above the trend is much the same moving closer the Christmas day and with it now only 9 days away from Christmas day and 8 days away from Christmas Eve there is good cross agreement in the forecast for Christmas 2020 which will fell more seasonal.

Before we look at the weather outlook and what we are likely to see I will point out I am looking at 4 different weather forecasting models and some of the best long range models we have on earth. There names and the country’s that use these weather models can be seen below. You would have heard me mention some of these forecasting weather models from time to time if you follow Donegal Weather Channel.

ECMWF - (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Europe.

GFS - (Global Forecast System) America.

GEM -(Global Environmental Multiscale Model) Canada.

UKMO - (UK MET OFFICE Unified Model) UK

The latest model runs from the ECMWF, GFS, GEM & UKMO all show a colder airmass moving down across Ireland from the 22nd/23rd of December bring lower temperatures and sharp frosts for the Christmas period. We would see wind turning northerly which would also bring a cold Windchill.

The latest indication is for a ridge of high pressure which is expected to build to the west of Ireland and the UK with winds and a colder airmass moving down from the north with arctic air. Below this can be seen on two of the attached model charts from the ECMWF and GFS

With a ridge of high pressure sitting west of Ireland and the UK which can be seen on the above charts this cuts of the westerly and unsettled flow from the west which we see normally and opens the door to that arctic air.

On the mornings of the 24TH, 25TH & 26TH on these forecast models its shows a widespread sharp to severe frost nationwide across Ireland and the UK and it could turn out to be the coldest Christmas since 2010.

MORNING LOWS - TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS

SNOW RISK IRELAND & UK CHRISTMAS PERIOD

Snow is one of the big things we look for in our forecasts around the Christmas periods and from our previous two updates I did mention we cant be ruling its out yet. The ECMWF weather model this morning and yesterday was showing the risk of snow showers on Christmas day as showers developed under that cold northerly airmass mostly due to the warm seas creating them. In this set up that is showing the highest risk areas of seen snow in Ireland would Ulster and north Connacht with one or 2 flurries also possible in the east. For the UK Northern Scotland, Northern England and northern Wales also,

Moving past the 26th for the last few days of 2020 the trend is for colder weather to stay with the risk of wintry showers with sharp to severe frosts. Fog may also be a issue for some places.

My next Christmas forecast update will be this weekend earliest Friday when we are less than a week out and in a good window where I will be able to give much more detail. If you love cold weather then this could be the Christmas for you.

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