CHRISTMAS UPDATE PART 4

Forecast update by - Kenneth Mc Donagh

We are now at a much better timeframe to give a much more detailed forecast as we are only 5 days away from Christmas day. The latest trends from the forecasting models is for colder weather over the period but models are still showing a much sharper turn in temperatures over the last few days of 2020 with the increasing risk of a northerly airflow and snow possible for places also.

Tuesday into Wednesday morning will also see a band of heavy rain move into the south of Ireland but how fair that move northwards is still uncertain in this morning forecasting runs. There will be a small risk of sleet and wet snow for a time within this band of rain with snow over higher mountains areas. At present there is no risk of accumulations from this and any that do occur will be be short lived. Below you will find the forecast outlook up until Stephens day and latest on the colder spell possible after the 26th of December with a sharp change in the forecast showing from Sunday the 27th onwards.

SUNDAY 20TH DECMEBER 2020

A mix of showers and sunny spells this morning with some of the showers heavy with the risk of hail especially in the west and northwest. Becoming drier during the afternoon for most areas but across the northwest there will be further showers with some merging into longer spells of rain with hail. Temperatures will range between 6C to 8C. Becoming cloudy this evening but remaining dry for much of Ireland but still some showers across the northwest.

Cloud increasing in all areas overnight with a band of rain moving into the south pushing northwards after midnight. Dry across Ulster north Connacht and north Leinster Later in the night before the arrival of that band of rain. Temperatures overnight of 1C to 4C.

MONDAY 21ST DECMEBER 2020

Rain moving northeastwards across Ireland on Monday morning with some wintry falls over higher mountainous areas rain heaviest across the south and east. Rain clearing to the east later Monday morning giving dry weather for much of the country with bright and sunny spells during the afternoon in places these best across the north and east. Cloud will increase during the mid afternoon across the south and west with another spell of rain effecting coastal counites of the south but staying dry elsewhere with the best of any sunny spells in the later afternoon and evening across the north.

Rain clearing southern areas with dry weather developing nationwide on Monday night, Some clear spells will also occur these northwest, north and east. Cold overnight with the risk of some frost and icy patches on roads with low of -1C to +3C coldest in the northwest and midlands.

NOTE - The great conjunction' of Jupiter and Saturn will occur overnight also known as the Christmas star with conditions as mentioned above been best across the northwest, north and east.

TUESDAY 22ND DECMEBER 2020

Cloud increasing from the south during Tuesday morning with the best of any clear spells to start across Ulster. Later in the morning a band of rain and sleet with some snow over higher ground will move into the south possibly moving northwards but the latest outlook from the ECMWF model has this only effecting Munster, Leinster and south Connacht during the afternoon, evening and night with drier weather across the rest of Connacht and Ulster. Some models has the band of rain moving further northwards effecting much of Ireland but hopefully by these evening that will become more clearer. The reason for the uncertainty is due to two different air masses clashing with cold air over the west and north with milder air across the south and east. As mentioned above this will lead to some wintry falls for places with rain, sleet or even wet snow to some lower ground areas for a time.

Day time temperatures will range between 3C to 7C warmest in the south and east. Night time temperatures of -1C to +4C with some frost across the north and northwest.

WEDNESDAY 23TH DECMEBER 2020

Cloudy to start with Rain and sleet clearing to the east on Wednesday morning with bright and sunny weather developing from the west during the afternoon. Latest indications from the ECMWF mode has it turning dry in all areas during the afternoon and evening with temperatures between 4C to 7C.

Turning cold overnight with a colder airmass sitting over the whole country with clear spells with only the odd isolated shower in some northern and northwestern coastal areas. Some frost and icy patches will also form with temperatures between -2C to +3C.

THURSDAY 24TH DECMEBER 2020 (CHRISTMAS EVE)

Thursday will be a dry day with sunny spells with only the small risk of a light shower or two along northwestern coasts. Temperatures will range between 4C to 6C.

Overnight will see perfect flying conditions for Santa with a cold night and clear spells with frosty conditions. Temperature will range between -2C to 2C

FRIDAY 25TH DECMEBER 2020 (CHRISTMAS DAY)

Another cold day to start with some cloud but some sunny spells also and the day looks set to be dry. Becoming milder over the evening with temperatures between 4C to 8C.

Overnight some light rain and drizzle will move into the northwest. The night will be frost free.

SATURDAY 26TH DECMEBER 2020 (ST STEPHENS DAY)

The trend is for colder weather to develop again over the weekend but St Stephens day look set to see light rain and drizzle move southwards across Ireland but fizzling out across the south where it will be drier.

Overnight St Stephens the latest signal is for a band of heavy rain to move into the north of Ireland with the risk of spot flooding.

OUTLOOK 27TH ONWARDS

A band of rain look set to move southwards across Ireland on Sunday morning with the risk of spot flooding. Rain will clear northern areas later Sunday morning with a much colder airmass from the arctic set to sweep in from the north on Sunday afternoon with showers turning wintry with some falls of sleet and snow. Some accumulations look possible overnight Sunday & Monday especially across the north and northwest where these showers will be heaviest. The trend heading into the last few days of 2020 is for a cold northerly airflow with the risk of wintry showers of sleet and snow.

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