colder weather with the risk of falls of snow from Sunday with polar maritime air
With high pressure breaking down in what has be a rather settled few days there is set to be a change again at the end of the weekend as colder polar maritime air moves across Ireland bring temperatures again back down to near freezing levels for some places.
Both the ECMWF model and GFS model where showing similar outlooks yesterday but the one difference between the two of them was on Monday where the GFS was bringing a deep area of low pressure northwards up over Ireland with a stormy spells of weather but the good news is that the GFS as now come into line with the ECMWF model showing a less stormy period but colder instead.
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On Saturday night light rain and drizzle will move in from the Atlantic extending eastwards across Ireland on Saturday night and Sunday morning before clearing out over the Irish sea later Sunday morning.
Once that spells of rain and drizzle clears of to the east Sunday morning much colder air starts to flood in behind a polar maritime air mass which will see upper air temperatures at 850hPa which is the air approximately 1.5 km above sea level to drop down to around -6C on Sunday evening and night. What does that mean you may ask with upper air temperatures down to -6C the sea area level temperatures will be close to -1C to 3C which will increase the chance of wintry falls of hail sleet and snow on Sunday night and Monday morning
The charts above is taken from the ECMWF model and show showers on Sunday evening, Sunday night and Monday morning turning wintry with falls of hail sleet and snow. Accumulations will be possible over high ground areas and on Sunday night lowland areas also in the west, northwest, north and midlands but not all areas are likely to see accumulations.
ECMWF model snow accumulations predictions between Sunday evening and Monday midday
The chart above taken from the ECMWF model shows the risk of snow accumlations on Sunday night and Monday morning as mentioned above high risk areas will be the west, northwest, north and midlands
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The latest GFS model also shows heavy shower from Sunday evening on with some possible heavy falls of hail sleet and snow mainly across the west, northwest and north on Sunday evening, night and Monday morning.
Monday morning could see some very icy roads across parts of the west, northwest, north and midlands and anyone traveling should be aware of this.
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The risk of Strong wind that the GFS was showing on Wednesday has now gone from the model something which I thought would happen and the model outlook from both the two main model now look very similar.
On Monday and Tuesday the outlook is for the colder Polar air to stay in place over Ireland with further falls of hail, sleet and snow with further accumulations possible again especially from Monday evening into Tuesday morning for lowland areas of the west, northwest and north.
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING
With a polar Maritime air mass here in Ireland there also alway comes the risk of thunder and lightning and possible even thundersnow.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Going by the latest model outlook weather warnings are likely to be issued over the weekend for snow and ice.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel
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