Concerning model runs this evening showing severe and damaging winds this Thursday into Friday
Latest ECMWF model run this evening is concerning
The latest ECMWF Model run has come in and it is concerning looking at it due to some of the winds speeds it predicting.
The latest ECMWF Model run shows much the same as the GFS did this morning and this afternoon with Hurricane Lorenzo becoming a extra tropical storm when it moves past the Azores losing its Hurricane status approximately around 1000km southwest of Ireland compared to Ophelia which retained it Hurricane status 500km from the southwest of Ireland back in October 2017
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As the storm under goes the transformation and becomes a extra tropical storm it is forecast now by two of the main models the ECMWF and GFS model to head north just of the west coast of Ireland and veer easterly somewhere near the northwest of Ireland with the center of low passing somewhere near Ulster or just of the North Coast.
On these latest runs its shows the risk of potential severe and damaging winds gusts possibly up to 140km/hr.
he difference between the GFS and ECMWF is the wind feild around the low. The ECMWF Model has a very strong windfield to the south and the North of Lorenzo something it did not show earlier which could potentially lead to hazardous weather nationwide if it tracks eastwards across Ireland as it currently shows. The GFS has the main wind feild to the south of the low tracking up the west coast and veering eastwards across Ireland.
I expected the national Hurricane Center to shift there warning cone more eastwards back towards Ireland in there next update tonight.
Met Éireann have also said they are very Concerned after see the latest model runs this afternoon and evening and the Impact Lorenzo could have on Ireland.
High seas and swells swells can be expected on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with the risk of up to 20ft waves on Thursday when Lorenzo moves close the the west and northwest of Ireland or over Ireland.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel.
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