High pressure gradually breaking down with the risk of stormy and wintry conditions with snowfall at the weekend
In what has been a settled few days weather wise with very little rainfall across Ireland due to a very powerful area of high pressure centering itself across Ireland and the UK at the end of last weekend it will gradually breakdown over the coming day with a change in the weather pattern heading into the weekend and early next week where there will be the risk of possibly windy weather at times, heavy rainfall and the risk of some wintry precipitation to with falls of hail, sleet and snow.
Below we will look at what the latest models show as we head into the weekend as there still is some uncertainty on the exact weather but some of the major models show a colder sector moving in at the end of the weekend and early next week.
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ECMWF MODEL
The Ecmwf weather model shows between Thursday and Saturday night there will be no massive amounts of rainfall with only some light drizzle in places at times with the ongoing risk of mist and fog.
On Saturday afternoon a band of light rain and drizzle will move in from the Atlantic crossing the country overnight into Sunday morning before clearing to the east later in the morning.
On Sunday afternoon a cold sector of air will move in from the Atlantic with colder conditions developing on Sunday afternoon, evening and night.
Sunday evening the latest ECMWF model then shows the risk of heavy showers moving in of the Atlantic turning to hail and sleet over the evening with snow over higher ground areas but then possible snow showers for low ground areas of the west, northwest and north on Sunday night with possible accumulations in places. With upper air temperatures around -6C and sea level temperatures around freezing or below in places as the ECMWF model shows this would support the idea for some snowfall. In this kind of set up thunder and lightning is also a risk.
ECMWF model showing wintry falls across the west, northwest and north on Sunday night and Monday morning
ECMWF model snow accumulations predictions between Sunday evening and Monday midday
So anyone traveling on Monday morning or on the school runs should take note especially across Connacht and Ulster as some snow accumulations will be possible but not all areas will see snow. Icy stretches on roads also will be a problem.
ECMWF model 850hPa Temperature chart showing cold upper air temperatures on Sunday night and Monday morning. Note that this is not the temperatures at ground level but the 850hPa boundary is approximately 1500m above sea level
The latest ECMWF also shows the risk of snow again over Monday into Monday night and on Tuesday mainly across the northwest of Ireland.
There is a lot of uncertainty on the forecast as of yet especially from Monday on and below I will explain why.
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GFS MODEL
The GFS weather model is much the same which shows between Thursday and Saturday night there will be no massive amounts of rainfall with only some light drizzle in places at times with the ongoing risk of mist and fog.
On Saturday afternoon a band of light rain and drizzle will move in from the Atlantic crossing the country overnight into Sunday morning before clearing to the east early in the morning.
On Sunday Morning a cold sector of air will move in from the Atlantic with colder conditions developing on Sunday afternoon. The GFS is currently hinting at heavy wintry showers over the northwest on Sunday afternoon and evening with the risk of some snowfall to lower level areas with further wintry falls again over the evening and night.
GFS showing heavy wintry showers Sunday afternoon, evening and night
Monday is where the uncertainty really is as the latest GFS model shows a area of low pressure moving up of the west and northwest coast of Ireland with stormy conditions and very strong winds with a brief milder sector of air been replaced again with colder air as the area of low pressure clears to the north.
The GFS shows as the area of low pressure passes ireland it could bring potentially very strong winds in places especially around the coastal areas along with heavy rainfall.
GFS showing potentially strong winds on Monday morning and afternoon across much of Ireland.
Once this clears monday afternoon colder air again moves in with heavy wintry showers across the west and northwest Monday night into Tuesday morning.
As you can see from the two different outlooks from Sunday in to early next week there is a lot of uncertainty in the models but both show the risk of some colder weather with wintry showers and to say what will exactly happen is impossible yet but in the next 48 hours this should become much clearer.
One thing to watch it where the jet stream will sit early next week which is very strong and will play a big factor on the outcome.
STRONG JET STREAM over Ireland next week which normally results in stormy weather. Also note where the curve is in the jet stream to the southwest of ireland this is what causes the area of low pressure showing on the GFS model to deeping and give potentially very windy conditions.
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