High pressure to build across Ireland next week with drier weather and warmer weather
IRISH WEATHER NEWS
Ireland has seen its fair share of rain over the last 7 to 10 days with some flooding in places especially across parts of the west, northwest and north of Ireland where a large amounts of flooding was recorded in places. Before we look at next week we will look at some of the stats and rainfall amounts from the last week.
Rainfall amounts where well above average for much of Ireland this week with some areas receiving significant accumulations. The northern half of the country recorded the highest rainfall totals, ranging 2 to 6 times the average. Mullingar was the wettest station with 114.6mm recorded, over 70mm fell on Thursday 5th August.
The good news is that rainfall amounts will be much lower over the coming 7 to 10 days with only around 10mm to 20mm of rain expected over the next 7 days with the highest amounts across the west, northwest and southwest of Ireland.
It will be drier in the east with only around 10mm at max in places but possibly lower amounts again in the northeast of Ireland across east Ulster.
The wettest day will come on Saturday with low pressure to the south sending a band of rain northwards across Ireland however some parts of Ulster look as the may remain dry with rain stalling around south Ulster, North Leinster and north Connacht.
As we move into next week the weather now does look like it will turn much drier as we have been forecasting in are weekly monthly forecast east week for the last few weeks. There were signs that drier weather with above average pressure would be more present into the 3rd week of August with some signs also that week 4 of August 2021 and early September could also start of on a drier note with some warmer conditions at times also.
The below Chart shows a strong ridge of high pressure building later next week into next week with the possible opening the doors to a warmer spells of weather from around next weekend or into the last week of August.
At present the latest ECMWF model shows mainly dry weather from next Wednesday and for the rest of the week and next weekend with temperatures into the low 20s in places over next weekend.
The GFS model also shows a similar outlook.
At this stage it cant be said for sure but as mentioned above this area of high pressure could open the doors for one last warm spells to develop at some stage over the last week of August or into early September with temperatures into the 20s. Note I say warm spell and not heatwave as forecasting a heatwave at this range would be very uncertain until we see more evidence to support that.
Below I have attached the ECMWF IFS HRES Model showing Temperature 2m, EPS maximum (°C) which is the potential temperature around the last week of August,
The EPS is a system of 51 identical weather models, 50 of which are each run with slightly different initial conditions. This provides a powerful tool for assessing the range of possible forecast outcomes for some time in the future.
Temperature 2m, EPS maximum (°C)
These maps show the maximum value for a specific parameter forecast by any of the 51 EPS members. This represents the far upper end of the range of possible outcomes, and should not be taken as a literal forecast as >95% of the time the observed value for the parameter in question will fall below the EPS max forecast.