It’s not something we wouldn't normally see during the month of May in Ireland a wind storm. But when we look on the other side of that atlantic there is also a early tropical storm which was named Arthur by the national hurricane centre and only developed into the tropical storm in the last 48 hours.

In the next 24 to 48 hours Tropical storm Arthur is forecast to become a post/extratropical storm.

Tropical storm Arthur itself will not hit Ireland but instead it leads to the birth of another area of low pressure which is a rather deep area of low pressure for the time of year which forms in the mid Atlantic and moves northeast wards towards Ireland and the current model runs as it moving up across the western half of Ireland with strong winds on Friday morning and over the afternoon as the storm tracks northwards later in the afternoon and evening up across the west of Scotland.

Below I have marked out on he ECMWF model showing Tropical storm Arthur position and how it leads to another area of deep low pressure forming moving towards Ireland.

The latest forecast from this morning ECMWF model run this morning and this evening is much the same with the 00z and 12z run taken the storm on the same path up the west of Ireland and then northwards up the west of Scotland.

On Thursday night the storms center will move northeastwards and will be located out to sea of the southwest of Ireland, After midnight and on Friday morning the storms center will then track north and slightly to northeast up of the west of Ireland. At around midday Friday the storm will be of the northwest of Ireland and west of Scotland before clearing overnight to the north of Scotland.

The GFS model also shows a more or less the same track as the ECMWF model.

The ICON and ARPEGE model also this evening are showing much the same track as the ECMWF is showing. So overall there is good agreement on all model Tonight Monday.

This storm will more than likely be named by Met Eireann in the next 48 hours with the next name been called ELLEN.

Winds nationwide will be strong for a time on Friday morning and over the early afternoon with gusty southwesterly winds for many areas of between 80km/hr to 110km/hr.

Wind will be stronger over southwestern, western and northwestern counties for a time on Friday morning especially across Donegal, Derry, Sligo, Leitrim, Mayo, Galway, Clare and Kerry where winds will gust between 100km/hr to 120km/hr and possibly as high as 130km/hr across exposed coastal areas along the Atlantic seaboard.

weather warnings are likely to be issued as early as Wednesday and no later than Thursday morning with weather advisory possibly issued on Tuesday.

I will further updates over the week.

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel

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