Sunspot 3 times wider than Earth will increase the chances of the northern lights over the coming week
If you are a fan of the night sky and would love to be in with a chance of seen the northern lights over the next 10 days across Ireland or the UK then its good news as the first giant Sunspot of the new solar cycle has started to rotate into view of earth.
The solar cycle or solar magnetic activity cycle is a nearly periodic 11-year change in the Sun's activity measured in terms of variations in the number of observed sunspots on the solar surface. Sunspots have been observed since the early 17th century and the sunspot time series is the longest continuously observed (recorded) time series of any natural phenomena.
Earth has passed solar minimum and is starting to wake up again as we head towards solar Maximum. We can expect space weather to get more exciting in the next few years, with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025. As we head towards the year of 2025 that also mean the odds of aurora will increase again just like the last solar Maximum which was April 2014.
A new sunspot has just rotated into view of earth Giant sunspot AR2781. AR2781 has nearly doubled in size since yesterday. With a primary dark core more than 3 times wider than Earth, the sunspot is an easy target for amateur telescopes or anyone with a zoom lens for a camera with a solar filter attached.
Even though it is not yet directly facing Earth, we can see the size in the comparison above. Image by Shahrin Ahmad from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
There even better news for aurora hunters and that is that sunspot AR2781 is crackling with solar flare activity. For you who don’t know what a solar flare is i will explain below.
SOLAR FLARE
A solar flare is a sudden flash of increased brightness on the Sun, usually observed near its surface and in close proximity to a sunspot group. Powerful flares are often, but not always, accompanied by a coronal mass ejection.
CORONAL MASS EJECTION
When a coronal mass ejection, or CME, is directed towards and strikes Earth's atmosphere, it causes a temporary disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field. The storm on the sun causes a type of storm on the Earth, known as a geomagnetic storm which then sparks of Auroras and depending on the size of the flare and amount of solar wind hitting earth give small to extreme auroras.
The classification of solar flares
Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X. A been A small solar flare and X been the largest.
A & B-class solar flares
The A & B-class are the lowest class of solar flares. They are very common and not very interesting. The background flux (amount of radiation emitted when there are no flares) is often in the B-range during solar maximum and in the A-range during solar minimum.
C-class solar flares
C-class solar flares are minor solar flares that have little to no effect on Earth. Only C-class solar flares which are long in duration might produce a produce a coronal mass ejection but they are usually slow, weak and rarely cause a significant geomagnetic disturbance here on Earth. The background flux (amount of radiation emitted when there are no flares) can be in the lower C-class range when a complex sunspot region inhabits the Earth-facing solar disk.
M-class solar flares
M-class solar flares are what we call the medium large solar flares. They cause small (R1) to moderate (R2) radio blackouts on the daylight side of the Earth. Some eruptive M-class solar flares can also cause solar radiation storms. Strong, long duration M-class solar flares are likely candidates to launch a coronal mass ejection. If the solar flare takes place near the center of the Earth-facing solar disk and launches a coronal mass ejection towards our planet, there is a high probability that the resulting geomagnetic storm is going to be strong enough for aurora on the middle latitudes.
X-class solar flares
X-class solar flares are the biggest and strongest of them all. On average, solar flares of this magnitude occur about 10 times a year and are more common during solar maximum than solar minimum. Strong to extreme (R3 to R5) radio blackouts occur on the daylight side of the Earth during the solar flare. If the solar flare is eruptive and takes place near the center of the Earth-facing solar disk, it could cause a strong and long lasting solar radiation storm and release a significant coronal mass ejection that can cause severe (G4) to extreme (G5) geomagnetic storming at Earth.
The New Giant sunspot AR2781 is crackling with solar flares. The strongest so far, a C7-class explosion at 0022 UT on Nov. 5th, lit up the sunspot's magnetic canopy for nearly an hour. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet (UV) flash.
C7-class explosion at 0022 UT on Nov. 5th on the sun casing a solar flare
X-rays and UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a brief low-frequency radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean and Australia: blackout map see below. Mariners and ham radio operators in the region might have noticed signals fading, especially at frequencies below 10 MHz.
Donegal Weather Channel will keep you updated on the latest aurora forecast over the coming week for further possible solar flares. If the sunspot continues to grow in size and continues to produce solar flares as the sunspot rotates more into earths view then there will be a increasing chance of aurora displays across Ireland and the UK with the ongoing risk of a larger display depending on the size of any CME.
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