Unsettled over the rest of the week with heavy rain but further snowfall possible again this weekend
The last of the colder air cleared Ireland this morning with some of the rain turning to sleet and snow for a time across higher parts of Ulster. At present the latest forecast will be on the milder side at least up until Saturday before we may see another change back to colder conditions
On Wednesday evening and Thursday Morning a spell of heavy rainfall will cross over Ireland with a status yellow rainfall warning also issued today from Wednesday 6pm until Thursday Morning 6am for the risk of spot flooding. The warning was issued for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath. Donegal Weather Channel also issued a warning for Northern Ireland for heavy rain where there will also be the risk of spot flooding
Donegal Weather Channel has also issued a yellow flood alert from Wednesday evening until Friday night due to a number of band of rainfall expect to cross over the country this week giving the increasing risk of flooding in places.
STATUS YELLOW FLOOD ALERT
A status yellow flood alert has been issued for some isolated flooding across Ireland from Wednesday evening until Friday midnight. A number of bands of rain heavy at times will give rainfall amounts of between 20mm to 50mm across parts of Ireland from later Wednesday up until Friday night. Some spot and isolated flooding will occur in places and with the ground waterlogged across much of Ireland flooding will occur quickly in any heavier periods of rainfall. Highest rainfall amounts will occur across the northwest, west and southwest. Higher ground areas and the mountains may see higher totals of up to 60mm.
The first band of rain will pass over the country later Wednesday into Thursday morning with a second band of rain passing later Thursday afternoon and night. Another band of rain then looks possible on later Friday.
Valid: 18:00 Wednesday 27/01/2021 to 23:59 Friday 29/01/2021
Issued: 19:30 Tuesday 26/01/2021
Winds will be gusty to strong this week at time especially across coastal areas later Wednesday and Thursday into Friday morning. No wind storms look possible this week with no major winds expected
SNOWFALL RISK THIS WEEKEND
This weekend Ireland look set to sit between the boundary between cold air to or north or over the northern half of Ireland with milder air to the south. The main forecasting models the ECMWF, GFS and GEM show the risk of snowfall again from Sunday into Monday.
The ECMWF model first showed sign of some falls of snow yesterday for the end of this weekend and now the GFS and GEM today have also picked up on this.
This will have to be watched closely as we may see a big snowfall event this weekend especially for parts of the northwest and north in particular but also parts of the east also.
For example I will show this evenings output from the most reliable model the ECMWF which is going for a very heavy period of snow Sunday and Monday with significant falls.
What it shows is on Sunday colder air across north Connacht, Ulster and parts of Leinster with a area of low pressure and a heavy band of rain moving up across Ireland turning to snow as it moves into the colder air across the northern half of Ireland.
The 00Z and 12Z model run from the ECMWF model from this morning and this evening can be seen below showing the accumulations its projecting or hinting at but its still around 4 days out so some change could occur with a downgrade or a upgrade with other models showing much the same.
ECMWF 00Z MORNING RUN
ECMWF 12Z THIS EVENING
I will update again day by day on any changes but the latest model run from the ECMWF is very interesting especially this evenings run which buries parts of the northwest and north in snow with some places receiving between 15cm to 25cm but take that with a pitch of salt as it only one run.
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