Very unsettled with the risk of flooding this week & weekend but signs of drier weather next week
This week will remain very unsettled with heavy rainfall looking like it will be the main factor this week across Ireland that could lead to some flooding for places at times this week.
The highest risk of flooding will be on Thursday when a very heavy band of rainfall will sweep over Ireland.
On Wednesday night up until Thursday night there will be a high risk of flooding across Connacht, West Ulster and West Munster in particular as heavy rainfall is expected there over a 24 hour periods with some areas on lower ground seen between 20mm to 40mm of rainfall with some areas also at risk of see between 40mm to 60mm which will lead to flooding as the ground for many areas right now is heavily saturated due to recent heavy rainfall.
good portions of the country expected to see between 200 and 300% of average (possibly above 100mm in some western areas). The east will be marginally drier overall but 150% of norm is still expected.
Very high rainfall amounts on Thursday are expected with the risk of flooding. This is what the latest ECMWF model show tonight the risk of up to 60 to 90mm of rainfall within a 24hr period on Thursday
The outlook for this weekend is for further spells of heavy rainfall with windy weather and possibly even very windy weather in places also but this is still uncertain as the exact track of low pressure system are not known yet as the move near to Ireland. The jet stream will sit over Ireland this weekend. sending areas of low pressure 1 after 1 across Ireland like a conveyer belt.
The good news is the latest GFS and ECMWF model are now showing the chance high pressure will build over next week leading to a big improvement in conditions with the weather becoming much drier over the end of the first week of November.
The below chart is from the ECMWF model for the week dated between Monday the 2nd November and Monday the 9th of November and it shows mean sea level pressure: Weekly mean anomalies. The pink shows higher pressure with the jet stream showing as the black broken line. To the north of the jet stream you have low pressure and cool weather and to the south that high pressure and the warm side of the Jetstream. This time of year even on the warm side of the jet you still can get night frosts
TUESDAY 27TH OCTOBER 2020
Rain spreading west to east across Ireland early Tuesday morning clearing to the east later in the morning with brighter and sunny spells developing from the west. During the afternoon there will be some bright and sunny spells but some showers also with some of these heavy in places with the risk if isolated thunder storms and hail. Temperatures of 10C to 13C. Moderate to gusty southwesterly winds strong along coastal areas.
Heavy thundery showers with hail will continue overnight across west Ulster, Connacht and west/south munster with the risk of some flooding occurring especially during any prolonged showers. Temperatures of 4C to 7C.
WEDNESDAY 28TH OCTOBER 2020
Heavy showers during the morning across Atlantic coastal counites with the risk of isolated thunderstorms and hail drier across the eastern half of Ireland. Over the afternoon showers of rain and hail with isolated thunderstorms will spread further inland effecting many areas with some prolonged falls of rain and hail across western and northwestern counties where there will be the risk if flooding. Best of any bright, sunny and drier weather will be across the east during the afternoon but later in the evening many areas will see drier weather away from northwestern counties. Temperatures of 9C to 11C. Moderate to gusty southwesterly winds strong along coastal areas.
Dry for a time for many places early overnight period but still some showers across the northwest but cloud increasing from the southwest with rain spreading northeastwards across Ireland. Temperatures of 5C to 8C.
THURSDAY 29TH OCTOBER 2020
Heavy rainfall for all areas on Thursday morning with weather warnings likely to be issued. There will be a high risk of flooding for places especially across northwestern, western and southwestern counties. Further rainfall across many parts of Ireland during the afternoon with heavier falls across western and northwestern counites with the risk of localised flooding. further east rain will be less heavy and lighter with some drier episodes possible in some southern and eastern coastal counites. Temperatures of 12C to 16C.
Rain for many overnight with further heavy falls across the west and northwest. Rain will be lighter across southern and eastern areas with a few drier periods there early in the night, there could be some problems in the west and northwest due to flooding. Temperatures of 6C to 9C.
FRIDAY 30TH OCTOBER 2020
Rain for many areas on Friday morning to start but clearing to the east later Friday morning with drier weather following from the northwest and to all areas over the afternoon. There is some uncertainty on Friday evening as the latest signal is for rainfall again to move into southern areas on Friday evening spread northwards overnight reaching all areas after midnight.
SATURDAY 31ST OCTOBER 2020
The latest indications for Saturday morning and afternoon is for heavy rainfall for all parts with the ongoing risk of flooding. It may also become windy on Saturday evening and night as a area of low pressure passes close to the northwest. There is still uncertainty within the forecast.
OUTLOOK
At the moment there is some uncertainty within the forecast from Saturday on as it looks set to be very unsettled with periods of wet and windy weather on both Saturday and Sunday as the Jetstream sits over Ireland sending areas of low pressure 1 after 1 across Ireland like a conveyer belt. There is good news even with all this poor weather that is expected and that is there are signs high pressure may eventually build next week.
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