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Will February see any cold snaps or snow in Ireland or the UK

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In what was a rather mild and unsettled January with temperatures just above normal around the first half of the Month and around average over the second half of January here in Ireland and the UK.

The start of January started of with storm Storm Brendan on Monday, 13th January bringing stormy conditions, heavy rain and high seas. Disruption to travel and localised flooding also occurred around in coastal areas. There was also some localised structural damage and trees uprooted.

Storm Brendan developed of the east coast of Canada (991hPa), and tracked eastwards across the Atlantic undergoing rapid cyclogenesis when it engaged with a very strong Jet Stream. Rapid cyclogenesis is defined as a depression deepening 24hPa in 24-hours but Brendan is deepened by about 50hPa in 24-hours.

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Over the 3rd week of January pressure grow over Ireland bringing cold but settled weather with fog at times which lead to weather warnings been issued and cold temperatures with low of -6C which lead to a cold temperature warning been issued on 2 nights.

Over the last week of January conditions where rather settled coming into it but on Sunday the 26th of January a cold polar Maritime air mass settled over Ireland bringing falls of sleet and snow to places mainly across the west, northwest and north on Sunday night 26th, Monday the 27th and Tuesday 28th of January 2020.

Donegal Weather Channels outlook for January which was issued at the end of December

Looking at the end of January into February there are signs that the strong westerly flow across Ireland and the UK could ease with pressure building across Europe and Scandinavia but this is rather uncertain yet and if it was to occur then is would weaken the normal westerly flow and could allow colder and drier weather.

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FEBRUARY OUTLOOK

The first few days of February will start of Unsettled with band of rain moving in of the Atlantic on Saturday night moving into the southwest and extending northeast on Sunday morning the 2nd of February giving possible falls of sleet and hill snow over parts of the northwest and north on Sunday morning as the band of rain bumps into a colder air mass.

MONDAY 3RD FEBRUARY TO SUNDAY 9TH FEBRUARY 2020

The start of next week look set to start of cold with frost and ice with some wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow possible in the west, northwest and north but nothing like places seen at the start of this week.

Over the week at least up until Friday a area of high pressure will sit just to the south of Ireland and the UK giving a good amounts of dry weather at times but not fully dry. Over the week there will be some sunshine on some days but some cloud to in places with the highest risk of light showers or drizzle across the northern half of Ireland. Some mist and fog could also be likely over the week at times mainly during the nights and morning hours.

The start of next weekend could see a band of rain spread in from the Atlantic with colder conditions but the end of next week again.

MONDAY 10TH FEBRUARY TO SUNDAY 16TH FEBRUARY 2020

There is a rather mixed outlook during this week but there are indications that there could be one or two stormy periods over the week with spells of heavy rain but cold air also does not look to be far away.

There is a risk that areas of low pressure could move in from the Atlantic with spells of heavy rain bumping into colder air with wintry falls of sleet and snow over this week especially over the second half of the week.

MONDAY 17TH FEBRUARY TO SUNDAY 29TH FEBRUARY 2020

Heading into this week there is all of uncertainty on what will happen but the more likely outcome is for a unsettled week again with further spells of rain and possible sleet and hill snow for some places.

On the long term model outputs there is a risk that the start of the spring period could start of colder than normal.

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Just a few days ago again a sudden warming in the stratosphere occurred but compared to the warming event which occured back in December it was a rather weak one. Sudden stratospheric warming can sometime lead to very cold weather like we seen back in 2018 when the beast from the east hit Ireland and the UK giving severe temperatures and record snowfall.

A strong polar vortex favours a strong jet stream. The jet stream is a fast moving ribbon of air around 5 to 7 miles (8 to 11km) above the earth that drives weather systems from the Atlantic towards the Ireland and the UK. 

Conversely, when the polar vortex weakens, the jet stream also tends to weaken and become distorted. 

In a typical Ireland and UK winter, the jet stream brings winds from the west giving us our mild, damp climate.

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With a stronger jet stream, stormy and very wet weather tends to occur. A weaker jet stream allows more frequent spells of northerly or easterly winds to affect the UK and in winter these bring very cold air from the Arctic and continental Europe.

Sometimes the polar vortex can even break down entirely, in an event called a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’. This has been linked to many spells of cold winter weather in recent years.

So, changes in the polar vortex in the stratosphere can affect the strength of the jet stream and as a result whether we get milder or colder weather in winter.

Some models show that another Sudden Stratospheric Warming could occur at the end of February which cold mean a cold start to spring 2020.


Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel

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