Major X Flare from the sun will see a high chance of the Northern Lights this weekend for Ireland and the UK
The Sun again has come to life today with the Sun crackling with activity with a number of solar flares from sunspot AR2887. An M1.4 solar flare centered around AR 2887 at 07:40 UTC (October 28th).
M1.4 solar flare this morning
A major solar flare measuring X1.0 was just observed around AR 2887 at 15:35 UTC. The active region is directly facing Earth and should a CME be produced, it would almost certainly be directed towards our planet.
Flare are rated by class A, B, C, M and X with a X class been the highest on the list. This afternoon flare was a X1 flare. The scale runs from 1 to 9 so and this morning M flare was a M 1.4 on the scale.
An X2 flare is twice the strength of an X1 flare, an X3 flare is three times as powerful as an X1, and only 50% more powerful than an X2. An X2 is four times more powerful than an M5 flare.
The blast also hurled a CME into space. Coronagraph images are not yet available, but evidence for a CME is already pursuasive. The USAF reports strong Type II and Type IV radio emissions generated by a CME plowing through the sun's atmosphere. In addition, energetic particles accelerated at the leading edge of a CME have already reached Earth.
The CME is expected to arrive as early as Saturday the 30th of October. With a M flare and a X flare on the way towards earth this could trigger G2 storms and as high as G5 solar storms which is the highest on the scale. See below the attached video of the CME from the X Flare on the Sun this evening.
X1 solar flare on the Sun this afternoon directed towards earth
WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
The weather forecast for Saturday night does not look great at all with a spell of rain and cloud moving in from the southwest on Saturday night which may mean if the CME arrives around then it will lower the chances of seen any northern lights Ireland. At this stage the highest chance of seen any northern lights display with be across Ulster early in the night as there may be some clear spell to the far north as the weather front does not look like it will arrive there later in the night but again this is all down to when the CME hits earth and when that weather front arrives.
If the CME was to hit later on Sunday espically closer to Sunday evening this may be the best chance as there currently looks like there will be some clear spells in places but again low pressure will be over the country or near Ireland with some cloudy and shower weather for some with some windy conditions also possible.
Keep a eye on the page over the weekend for further updates on the forecast and the arrival of the strong CME of this solar cycle yet to effect earth.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel