In what has been a very active weekend gone and active week so far with strong winds, heavy rain, Thunder & Lightning, Hail, Sleet and snow the weather does not look like settling down anytime soon and I know the big question every one normally has this time of year will it be a white Christmas. Below we will look at the Christmas period and what the models are showing as the start to come into range for the Christmas period
But first lets have a look at the end of this week, weekend and the start of next week.
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So to answer the question about the snow risk for this weekend yes chances look fairly high for some places especially later Friday night into Saturday and possibly into Sunday and Monday of next week too.
Below we will use the GFS model as a example on what is in store this weekend and then we will talk about the rest of the models and what the show.
GFS WEATHER MODEL
WEDNESDAY 11TH DECEMBER 2019
First we look at the weather just gone today Wednesday and why some higher level areas seen snow with hail and sleet showers to lower levels. The below chart shows upper level temperatures (This is the temperature approximately 1.5 km above sea level) which where around -3C to -4C and with sea level air temperatures around -1C to 2C in places this morning this is why we seen wintry falls of snow in places.
UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS IRELAND TODAY WEDNESDAY 11TH DECEMBER 2019
THURSDAY 12TH DECEMBER 2019
Thursday warmer upper air temperatures will be in place over Ireland and sea level air temperatures will be a little higher to over the day with less of a risk of wintry showers but still the risk of hail to lower level areas and some sleet over the higher mountains.
MILDER UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH LESS OF A RISK OF WINTRY SHOWERS
Thursday afternoon will see the risk of some prolonged showers falling as rain and hail with the risk of some thunder and lightning also Atlantic coastal counties from Donegal down to Kerry will be most at risk. Temperatures will range between 5C to 9C
FRIDAY 13TH DECEMBER 2019
Friday will see a area of low pressure move in from the Atlantic moving eastwards across Ireland and the current timing of this is yet uncertain but at the moment it looks like it will move across later Friday afternoon and Friday night.
There is a risk of windy weather across southwestern and southern parts on Friday but at present any of the main models don’t show noting major.
THIS WEEKEND SATURDAY 14TH AND SUNDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2019
As this low moves west to east across Ireland later Friday much colder air will follow behind this system with showers turning increasing from rain to sleet and snow for areas Friday night and Saturday morning.
Below on the chart you can see upper air temperatures of around -5C and lower in places which would support the increasing risk of snowfall for places later Friday starting across higher ground areas and then lower level areas on Saturday morning.
Colder air moving in later Friday and Saturday morning
The animation below shows the snow risk over the weekend into early next week with pink and purple on the chart wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow. This is from Friday to Monday
At the moment there is a risk of snow showers almost in many parts of Ireland but western, northwestern and northern parts of Ireland will be at the highest risk. On Saturday some parts of Munster and south Leinster could also see a spell of wintry precipitation of rain, hail sleet and snow as a area of low pressure crosses over the south and move into that colder air.
Frost and icy nights can be expected with poor travel conditions over the weekend with highs at night of around 2C for some places and low of around -4C and possibly -5C across some snow covered areas.
The exact details on where will see wintry falls over the weekend will become much clearer on Thursday when Friday and weekend can be seen in better detail on the higher resolution charts.
Warnings could be issued for Friday night or over the weekend for snow and ice.
I will update again later Thursday on this but now below lets look at the Christmas period.
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CHRISTMAS PERIOD
The Christmas is now only starting to coming into range of some of the models and there is a rather mixed output from them and to get straight to the point they show something different everyday.
Over the weekend and the start of next week we will be within a time frame when we can make possible outcomes on what the forecast will be for the Christmas Holiday season.
At present I feel it is 50/50 and to rule out some wintry weather over the Christmas period its to early.
I feel over the rest of this month we will see brief milder periods and brief colder snaps with the risk of another potentially stormy period before Christmas or close to the big day.
I will have further updates over the next few hours on the weekend risk of colder and wintry conditions.
At the end of the weekend we will start with the Christmas outlook and what weather models show heading up to the big day.
Click on the tabs below to view the new forecasts available under the forecast section.
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