Over the past week I have been watching the weather forecasting models especially the main player models like the ECMWF, GFS, UKMO & GEM just to name a few which have been sending out strong signals and outputs that Ireland and the UK may be about to see some of the coldest weather of the winter season to date. Up until now I have not said much on this and kept things on the low due to the timeframe but with that timeframe now down to around a week away I think its time to start looking at the potential.

First of all this weekend we see Ireland in what is known as a battle ground with milder air over the southern half of Ireland and colder air over the northern half of Ireland with areas of low pressure feeding in bands of rain giving heavy rainfall and a flooding risk to mostly the southern half of Ireland with the risk of some sleet and snow across the northern half of Ireland as that rain hits the colder air. Sunday into Monday will be the day that the biggest risk of snowfall will occur for parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster with weather warnings most likely been issued on Saturday for heavy rainfall and snow and ice for Sunday morning and afternoon. Some parts of the northwest could then see further sleet and snow on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Another band of rain then looks set to move up over Ireland Later Monday into Tuesday with some of the forecasting model also showing the risk of further falls of snow again for places with the colder air still in place across the northern half of Ireland but at this stage its very uncertain.

TURNING MUCH COLDER LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER NEXT WEEKEND

Most of the forecast models are now showing a major change to the pattern over the later stage of next week with a east to northeast airflow with a much colder airmass arriving across Ireland and the UK. Some of the models bring this pool of colder air across Ireland as early as next Friday the 5th of February 2021. Some of the main forecasting model including the GFS, ECMWF, GEM and UKMO all show this.

This evenings run from the ECMWF has delayed the colder air arriving on this evenings run to around Monday the 8th of February and eases of on the idea of a easterly and shows a more northerly airflow which would be still cold but it also has been showing this easterly airflow on previous run like other.

Looking at the latest set up from the weather models some of the main models & ensembles hint at Northern blocking & higher pressure

Blocking highs can remain in place for several days or even weeks, causing the areas affected by them to have the same kind of weather for an extended period of time. If these blocking highs become established between Scandinavia and Greenland, a synoptic pattern can evolve which leads to bitterly cold air from eastern Europe/Russia or Scandinavia advecting in over Ireland.

Already there are signs that the stratospheric polar vortex is weakening again with further warming occurring with it possibly peaking early next week.

This could mean we then next weekend and early next week start to see a much colder airmass across the country with very low night time temperatures along with some further falls of snow. In a easterly set up the eastern half of Ireland would be a most risk to snowfall with streamers feeding in of the Irish sea but with cold enough air in places a area of low pressure moving up across Ireland could give falls of Snow to many other areas.

Night times would be very cold with severe frosts and well below normal temperatures countrywide.

I will keep a eye on this over the week and update on any further changes but the risk of colder easterly airflow later next week is at around 70% but I am only putting a severe colder spell at around 40% at the moment due to the timeframe been still 150hrs away.

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel

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