**This evenings GFS and ECMWF Models showing an Azores high across Ireland later next week and next weekend which could bring warmer weather**

Forecasting models again today Wednesday 29th July 2022 continues to show strong signs of a warmer spell of weather building across Ireland to give the country much long needed first taste of summer.

There has been signals for the last week or more on the longer range ECMWF weather model that higher pressure is possibly going to build across Ireland through next week especially towards the end of the 1st week of July. This sort of high pressure system is called an Azores high as it originates from around the Azores islands which are located of the west of Portugal. The chain of islands lies in the North Atlantic Ocean roughly 1,000 miles (1,600 km from the west of mainland Portugal .

Over the last 2 days other forecast models are starting to come into that time frame with many of them also showing an Azores high pressure system drifting north-eastwards towards Ireland later next week.

June over all as it draws to a close has been very poor with very unsettled conditions and any change to drier conditions will be welcomed with open arms

THIS WEEKEND

First of all we will have a quick look at this weekend which will see the weather start to settle and the rollercoaster of low pressure systems moving in of the Atlantic over the last few weeks starting to ease off.

Saturday will see some bright and sunny spells but some scattered showers also in many places on Saturday morning. Showers will ease over the later afternoon and evening and it will turn drier everywhere with the only places at risk of some isolated showers during Saturday evening been the northwest as that cooler north-westerly breeze bubbles up a few shower across Donegal, Leitrim and Sligo mostly.

Again Sunday morning will see some scattered showers but these easing later in the morning and over the early afternoon with some bright and sunny spells for many areas. The small risk of a isolated shower or two along coastal areas of Mayo and Donegal in the evening but many parts in these counties also dry.

NEXT WEEK

When we say next week and Azores high will build don’t expect it to happen straight away and don’t expect to wake up Monday morning with sunny skies and the heat pumping outside. Below I will explain what we are starting to see in the forecasting models.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see a lot of dry weather across Ireland and it will be much drier than this week as that Azores high starts to push north-eastwards from the Azores Islands towards Ireland making it 2,195km Journey which is the estimate distance the Azore islands are from Ireland.

Monday to Thursday will see some showers across across Ireland but these will become less of a risk as we move towards the end of the week as the centre that High pressure moves close to Ireland. Below I have attached a chart taken from the GFS and ECMWF weather model which shows the high pressure moving out of the Azores moving towards Ireland and sitting right over us in time for next weekend. You will see the agreement in both of the main forecast model is nearly the same.

**GFS Chart showing the Azores high moving towards Ireland later next week. The chart shows from Friday this week the 1st of July 2022 up into Sunday the 10th of July 2022**

**ECMWF Chart showing the Azores high moving towards Ireland later next week. The chart shows from Friday this week the 1st of July 2022 up into Friday the 8th of July 2022**

As mentioned in last nights update the position of the high pressure system and were it centre sits plays a big difference in what sort of temperatures we see. For example at the end of next week the GFS and ECMWF mode has the Azores high pressure system just centred of the west of Ireland which would mean north-westerly airflow which would bring temperatures somewhere in the area of the high teens to low 20s so in and around 17C to 22C for Thursday and Friday next week. Below you will see a example from both the ECMWF and GFS weather model locating that high pressure just of the west of Ireland later next week and again both of them show the same forecast position at this range

**GFS Showing high pressure to the west at the end of next week with that northwest airflow bringing temps in the high teens to low 20s**

**ECMWF Showing high pressure to the west at the end of next week with that northwest airflow bringing temps in the high teens to low 20s**

**Potential temperatures at the end of next week cooler to the northwest with the northwest airflow but still warm**

NEXT WEEKEND

Over next weekend forecast models then show that Azores high which was just centred to the west of Ireland move eastwards towards Ireland with the high pressure sitting bang centre over Ireland next week. If this was to occur and is what most of the forecast models are showing at the minute at least some of the most reliable forecast models then we would see wind coming from a more east to south easterly position and would bring much warmer conditions possibly into the mid to high 20s for a few days. Below I have attached the chart from this evening 12z model run from the GFS which show the perfect set up but which is a long way of yet but signs are encouraging.

**Potential for even warmer temperatures over next weekend as the high pressure sit right over Ireland.**

That it for this update folks. This update was mainly to explain what we are looking at possibly evolving next week and why it curtail to were that centre spot of the high pressure sits as it can have a big change in temperatures and how warm temperatures will get. I will have further updates over the week on this but we should have a very fair idea this weekend on the forecast next weekend.

I will finish of showing the below Image which is the ECMWF weather model ensemble forecast for Donegal over the coming week which shows pressure on the rise and precipitation becoming less of risk after Monday.

You will also see the 850 hPa Temperatures on the rise which is the temperatures 1.5 km above sea level when we see this it also mean a rise in temperatures at ground level.

An ensemble weather forecast is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. There what forecaster use for long range forecasting