ECMWF Forecast snowfall risk Monday night to Wednesday

At the end of this week an Atlantic frontal system will move in from the Atlantic and move northwards across the country but there is a high degree of uncertainty at the moment on how much snow will fall in places with coverings expected for many areas on Thursday into Friday but the amounts of snow at this moment cant be determent due to the complex set up. On of the main reasons it due to a Scandinavian high pressure system to the northeast of Ireland.

The frontal system will move up across Ireland northeastwards on Thursday & Friday with rain turning quickly to snow for many parts of the country as it hits that very cold air over Ireland and clears to the northeast. We then have the Scandinavian high pressure system to the northeast of Ireland which could slow the progress of the band or bands of snow moving over Ireland giving a few hours of snowfall in places. But with the higher pressure to the northeast it could also mean that the band of snow starts to decay as it move northeastwards and become lighter and this is the reason there is uncertainty on how much snow areas will receive.

When we look at the Accumulations amounts from the previous two model runs from the ECMWF and GFS it shows how a little change to this system can determine where see a good dumping of snow and were see smaller accumulations.

ECMWF model runs from Sundays 12z run and todays 00z runs attached below

Snow depth predicated by 12pm Friday 12th Feb 2021

GFS model runs from Sundays 12z run and todays 06z runs attached below

Snow depth predicated by 12pm Friday 12th Feb 2021

The latest model output shows most areas seen snow at some point on Thursday into Friday but Thursday afternoon mild air nudging into southern and western coastal areas from Galway to Cork or Waterford with snow turning back to sleet and rain there but continuing to fall as snow across Ulster, Leinster and Connacht away from the coast over the evening and night as the colder air holds on in these areas. Some accumulations of 3cm to 5cm will be possible in places but some areas will also be at the risk of possibly seen 10cm+ from this frontal system but this will depend on how far north the frontal system gets before decaying due to that Scandi high to the northeast. Closer to the time most likely Tuesday night or early Wednesday we should be able to give a better update on amounts. There is a risk that a Orange warning for snow/ice could be issued for places due to this but at this moment I am not going to say for where.

The images below are from the Met Eireann High Resolution Ecmwf model version. The white and light greens showing the snow and the more vivid colors showing rainfall and the amounts

The risk doesn’t not end there either as some of the models have the cold hanging around North Connacht, Ulster and Leinster over the weekend into next week with the GFS and ECMWF model showing the further snowfall risks possibly from from late Saturday into Tuesday from frontal systems moving into that very cold air which sits over Ireland.

Ireland over the weekend and next week will sit on the boundary of that very cold airmass to the east with a slightly milder air mass just to the west of Ireland with the Atlantic trying to push back in. We called this a battle ground zone between the cold and milder air.

Last week some of you might remember I stated that models where showing a milder airmass towards the end of this week into the weekend but I had a hunch this would change to a colder outlook due to the deep cold over Europe at present and not allowing that milder air to steam roll back in well that is the case now.

Later next week

The latest outlook on a good few of the models the passed few days have been showing that battleground across Ireland at the end of the week into this weekend and due to the weaker Atlantic than normal and colder air over Europe some of the forecasting models are showing that a reload of very cold air will move across Ireland again possibly between the 19th and 22nd of February and remaining cold into the end of the month with a delayed start to spring so don’t be going putting the snow shovels or winter clothes away anytime soon.

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel

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