Update from Met Eireann on Hurrucane Lorenzo this morning
The image above shows the wide spread in outcomes in the latest ensemble output from ECMWF.
Hurricane Lorenzo is currently (Sun 29 September 10.00) situated at 25.1N 44.6W,
just over 2000km southwest of the Azores.
Hurricane Lorenzo is currently (Sun 29 September 10.00) situated at 25.1N 44.6W,
just over 2000km southwest of the Azores.
On the forecast track, Lorenzo is expected to move near or just west of the Azores late
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thereafter, the exact track and the intensity of Lorenzo as it transitions to an extratropical low is still very uncertain. However, one possibility is that it will track northeastwards towards Europe.
ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, of which Ireland is a member, uses numerical weather prediction models to estimate uncertainty in weather forecasts. The ECMWF model uses a range of slightly different initial values to calculate 50 possible solutions. This is known as an ensemble, which is used by Met Éireann meteorologists to understand uncertainty in the forecast and the range of weather outcomes that are possible.
Met Éireann, the UK Met Office and the US National Hurricane Centre (NOAA) are holding daily conference discussions. The progress of Lorenzo and any potential impacts for Ireland are being closely monitored.
CONTINUES BELOW
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel.
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Kind Regards
Kenneth