UPDATE - Heavy snowfall on Sunday night and a storm on Monday looking likely
The latest weather models this Friday evening are throwing out some interesting forecast for Sunday and Monday next with the risk of heavy snow for a time on Sunday night and strong winds on Monday for places.
A area of low pressure which looks set to start rapidly deepen on Sunday night of the west coast of Ireland bring very strong winds on Monday with a named storm looking possible.
If this area of low pressure is named it will be called Storm Ellen. The storm could be named by Met Eireann or the Met office UK in the coming 24 hours.
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The latest ECMWF, GFS, ICON & ARPEGE model shows a band of rain moving into the southwest of Ireland on Sunday evening associated with the deep area of low pressure of the west of Ireland. Overnight this rain spreads north eastwards across Ireland and looks set to turn wintry with heavy falls of sleet and snow across parts of the west and north. At present north Connacht and Ulster look like the highest risk with possible snow accumulations occurring as this band of precipitation spreads northwards on Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Below you can see this on the 4 models mentioned above
The precipitation then looks set to turn back to rain in parts of the west and north for a time on Monday morning there will be the ongoing risk of risk of spot and localised flooding . Elsewhere the precipitation will fall as rain with the the risk of spot and localised flooding.
Possible snow accumulations over the north Connacht and Ulster on Sunday night and early Monday morning.
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STORM WATCH MONDAY
On Sunday evening the area of low pressure will be located of the west of Ireland and from Sunday evening into Sunday night the area of low pressure starts to rapidly develop undergoing rapid cyclogenesis as it tracks of the northwest and north of Ireland with a sharp and strong windfield forming as them isobars real tighten up.
The area of low pressure of the west coast of Ireland on Sunday evening and night
The area of low pressure of the northwest coast of Ireland on Monday morning around dawn with it undergoing rapid cyclogenesis
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On Monday morning around dawn the area of low pressure will be located of the northwest coasts of Ireland moving northeast wards but then near the northwest coast of Ireland it starts to move in a more westerly track after dawn and later Monday morning with the main core of them strong winds getting into northwestern and northern counties with gusts between 100km/hr to 130km/hr possible especially at this stage across Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Derry Tyrone, Antrim and Down as it tracks of the north of Ireland in a westerly direction across Scotland on Monday afternoon and evening when them strong winds look set to effect northwestern and northern counties. Elsewhere across Ireland winds will gust between 50km/hr to 90km/hr with the least strongest winds across the southern half of Ireland.
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Below you will find the latest model runs attached showing a similar track and outcome on Sunday night and Monday - Latest model runs are from the 12z Friday evening runs
ECMWF MODEL - STORM TRACK
Area of low pressure of the west of Ireland midnight Sunday
GFS MODEL- STORM TRACK
ICON MODEL - STORM TRACK
Area of low pressure over the north of Scotland Monday evening and night with strong and severe damaging gusts
ARPEGE - STORM TRACK
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Today’s forecasting model runs all have the area of low pressure and main core of winds tracking further to the south over northwestern and northern counties which at this stage seem to be all on the same level.
This could trigger Met Eireann or the UK Met office naming the storm over the coming 24 hours along with warnings and advisories been issued. By this evening and Saturday morning the track of this are of low pressure will be better known and any more shifts to the south as it takes that westerly track of the north of Ireland and over Scotland would not be great and could give some extreme conditions across the northwest and north of Ireland.
Explosive cyclogenesis
Explosive cyclogenesis (also referred to as a weather bomb, meteorological bomb, explosive development,bomb cyclone or bombogenesis) is the rapid deepening of an extratropical cyclonic low-pressure area. The change in pressure needed to classify something as explosive cyclogenesis is latitude dependent. For example, at 60° latitude, explosive cyclogenesis occurs if the central pressure decreases by 24 mbar (hPa) or more in 24 hours.This is a predominantly maritime, winter event, but also occurs in continental settings, even in the summer.This process is the extratropical equivalent of the tropical rapid deepening. Although their cyclogenesis is totally different from that of tropical cyclones, bomb cyclones can produce winds of 74–95 mph, the same order as the first categories of the Saffir-Simpson scale and give heavy precipitation. Even though only a minority of the bombs become so strong, some have caused significant damage.
I will have another update this evening if there are any further changes or shifts to the system so stay tuned.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel
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