We are now 14 days away until Christmas day and in the weather world this time of year the biggest question been asked by most will there be a white Christmas? Whats the chances of a white Christmas? Will it be cold?

At this stage it is yet to far out to say for sure and anybody that tells you anything different is just guessing however one thing we do look at here at Donegal Weather Channel is the forecast running close to the period around Christmas which can give us some hints of the weather forecast for the periods at around 2 weeks out.

In this update we will look at the GFS, ECMWF & GEM weather forecasting model and the trends the show over the coming 10 days .

GFS - American weather forecasting model

ECMWF - European weather forecast model

GEM - Canadian forecast model

UNSETTLED WEATHER

The trend over the coming 10 days from all 3 forecast models is for much more unsettled weather with the risk of wet and windy weather. Over the coming 10 days on the run up to the Christmas period there is a risk that a name storm may also occur over Ireland with the Jet stream looking set to move close to Ireland and intensify areas of low pressure as the move along it coming across the Atlantic.

The image below shows the strong jet moving over or close to Ireland at times over the next 10 day possibly developing areas of low pressure as the move across the Atlantic.

SNOWFALL FOR CHRISTMAS?

Some wintry falls could occur at time on the run up this Christmas but mainly over higher ground areas. This could come in the way of weather fronts moving into colder air with rain turning more to a wintry mix but at this time there is no major pattern flips or changes to colder air looking likely to to happen between now a Christmas but we are still at a time frame that we cant rule out any white stuff.

Some of the longer range forecast models last week where showing a area of higher pressure developing across Ireland bringing cold , dry and frosty weather for the Christmas period but now the most likely outcome is for a unsettled spell of weather.

From around the middle of next week we will have a good idea and will be able to give a much more accurate update on the Christmas period outlook. The trend from models as of now is for a unsettled period in the run up to Christmas and possibly continuing of the Christmas period.

We will have another update again midweek next week

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel

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